2024 and 2025 Fluke Options Poll

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by Broad Bill

Good dialogue. The below graph is based on data right from the stock assessment, best available science, the horses mouth and peer reviewed. Summer flounder attain sexual maturity between ages 2 and 3. Based on the Mean Length by Sex and Age charts, a 3 year old female summer flounder's mean length is 17.65 inches, a males is 15.42 inches. So waiting until a female reaches 18" might give that fish one to maybe two years of spawning. Almost all male age groups through age 7 have a mean length less than 18". Age 6 in the graph for males makes no sense, must be flawed data of some kind used in their models.

Key point to keep in mind. Right or wrong, science assigns a 25% natural mortality rate to every age class from sickness, predation (stripers, seals etc.). Meaning if an age class started with 1,000 new recruits, it loses 250 in the first year. In the second year, that age class presumably has shrunk to 750 and loses another 187 (25% of 750) or round it up to 200 in year two and has now lost almost 50% of it's class just to natural mortality. Now add discard mortality, especially commercial related which is an enormous number carrying an 80% mortality rate and add recreational mortality plus fishing mortality from commercials who can retain these sizes or throw them back dead while recreational anglers can't. If these percentages are close to reality, we're losing 60% - potentially 80% of every age class within two years before they spawn once or can be harvested legally by the recreational sector. And since males are smaller in size, we're proportionately losing a higher percentage of males from each class which to Hammer's point is why I believe almost all fish harvested recreationally are females. Most males die early in their life cycle, victims of natural mortality or collateral damage from commercial fishing operations. Very few males make it over 18". And if these younger age classes end up in commercial nets, they're going back dead because the prime size commercials harvest are in the 16" - 18" range for the restaurant market. The true reason recreational regulations start at over 18" giving the commercial sector exclusive harvest rights to those size fish.

This fishery flourished in the 90's and early 2000 because we were harvesting the exact opposite age classes we're harvesting today. Harvesting them before they were succumbing to natural mortality and discard mortality, and protecting the spawning stock which made it through. Today's regulations allow these fish to succumb to 25% natural mortality yearly for the first two years, losing ~50% of each classes population, we kill millions of the younger age groups pursuing the harvest of the older age groups and science wonders why the spawning stock declined substantially and why recruitment statistics are approaching historic lows. How many marine biologists should it take to figure that out? Makes no sense if the powers to be are managing the fishery as opposed to what's best for the commercial sector which personally I believe is the prevailing problem regulatory decisions are being based on.

The attached graph shows males are substantially smaller than females, because they grow slower and live shorter lives.

I agree with some of that , but commercial guys are not targeting restaurant sized fish .
They want fish 4 pounds and up because in a good market they make 1 dollar more per pound .
So here in NJ when they are allowed say the 3000 pound weekly , they earn an extra 3k.


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