Where the heck are the Fluke?

[bulletbob]

OK, I get it now.. the water off NJ is too WARM for Fluke.. However, the whiting are inshore in mid June.. yeah, that makes perfect sense.

So I guess the summer flounder that are resident in Florida year round,and have ALWAYS been there right alongside Gulf and Southern flounder should pack their bags and move north to Georgia to get away from WARM water... oh brother....

[flyersnfluke]

Long Island boats are doing well. Montauk always seems to have an excellent run, but boats out of captree are not having a problem catching fluke right now. Last year there was an early body of fish in the reach channel (approaching Staten Island), but once that body of fish moved out/fished out it was tougher fishing. However, out east, again on long island, and if you were willing to motor pretty Far East of AH, you could find some fish. One thing that was noted by long island fishermen was that the fluke were spitting up sand lance, so there was a good food supply further east. This was supported by big numbers of Cory’s and greater shearwaters southeast of Jones inlet, it was believed the big numbers of these sea birds were also feasting on sand lance. If, during their inshore migration, fluke are finding an ample food supply, they have little reason to move further inshore. Just another thought.
As for fluke being found further north, they were always around Nantucket/the vineyard/tuckernuck, they just weren’t targeted for some reason

[Luckyduck]

Maybe the net draggers got them didn’t they up there Quota by 40%

[fishunt]

i just think the seabass fishing been so go that eveybody been sticking to the seabass/ ling. we will see next week what happen when everybody switches over to fluking.

[rwp2101]

Originally Posted by fishunt

i just think the seabass been so go that eveybody been sticking to the seabass/ ling. we will see next week what happen when everybody switches over to fluking.

The AH party boats that focus on fluke don't decide to bottom fish because the sea bass bite is good, it's because the fluking is bad-- and it's bad.

[penn50w]

Originally Posted by luckyduck

maybe the net draggers got them didn’t they up there quota by 40%

bingo!!!

[Billfish715]

As long as we're making guesses about where the fluke are or where they went, here is my supposition. Is it a coincidence that the Angler is gone and so are the fluke? No fluke......no Angler......No Angler.......no fluke!

[hammer4reel]

Head east

[bulletbob]

My opinion is that wherever they are, they aren't going looking for colder water..
BTW, I had no idea about this commercial 40% quota increase that was was posted on this thread... Thats catastrophic if true.
I would love for someone to enlighten me on this ... bob

Originally Posted by bulletbob

My opinion is that wherever they are, they aren't going looking for colder water..
BTW, I had no idea about this commercial 40% quota increase that was was posted on this thread... Thats catastrophic if true.
I would love for someone to enlighten me on this ... bob

Bob......here's a link to an article written by Dan Radel with APP which attempts to explain to 40% increase.

https://www.app.com/story/sports/out...rs/3153388002/

Two statements you should note:

The logic is recreational fishermen actually caught closer to 7.69 million pounds of fluke in 2018 than 4.4 million pounds because there are more fluke in the ocean than models used in past benchmark assessments reported.

AND

The reason for the disparity is because new data points were used in the 2018 benchmark stock assessment for summer flounder. Mail-in surveys were used to gather fishing effort from anglers in the Marine Recreational Information Program, or MRIP, instead of phone calls. The mail-ins "reported much higher catches of summer flounder than were estimated," said Kirby Rootes-Murdy, the senior Fishery Management Plan coordinator for the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission.

So in other words more fish in the stock assessment but recreational quota remains status quo because historical recreational catch numbers which were based on "BEST AVAILABLE SCIENCE" used by highly competent scientists with all that schooling, training and data collecting/modeling expertise are now saying they GROSSLY under-estimated recreational catch in previous models. That should give everyone an idea of what "best available science" actually means. It's an extremely relative term which is essentially a disclaimer that the data regulatory decisions are being based on could be materially wrong but it's best available. And this is all because recreational catch numbers based on MRIP are now being collected through mail in replies as opposed to phone calls. And I'm sure a 99% confidence level was assigned to that statement the same as the numbers used in previous models which by default NMFS is now saying are materially wrong.

Stock goes down, recreational anglers take a hit. Stock goes up, we still take a hit based on guesstimates just as speculative as the older version of MRIP while commercial operators received a 40% increase. An increase equivalent to in excess of $10,000,000 in incremental catch values subsidized by the harvest of larger fish recreational anglers are mandated to release. 14" - 17.99 for NJ, 14" to 18.99 for NY, Ct and RI.

But rest assured, this all passed Peer Review so our concerns should be put to rest. Only other industry which can be so far off with forecasts and models without question is the Weather Bureau. They report up under NOAA and the Department of Commerce as well so makes perfect sense.

I agree we need science, but accepting it face value when the fishery is in a prolonged 17 year decline in all aspects (recruitment, catch levels and the biomass in general) is as illogical as thinking we don't need science at all. But blind faith isn't the answer either. Unfortunately this is a David and Goliath situation and I doubt David is winning this one.