Status Quo For Striped Bass!!

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by reason162

You're rather missing the point - if the MRIP is overestimating effort and landings, but the stock assessments are sound, then the actual population of bass is smaller than previously thought, not larger.

And also let's keep in mind that the only reason MRIP is undergoing correction is due to better science. Not you or anybody else making claims on the internet - but trained professionals crunching the numbers and doing the work so you can then turn around and misunderstand its implications.

Reason you're obviously an educated man and conservation minded which I admire but you live in a fantasy world when it comes to NMFS, science, Peer Review etc.. Don't know your background but you're blanket blind faith science can do no wrong opinions are unfounded and simply a huge over exaggeration of reality. While I agree with you 100% science is critical, like everyone else there's no free passes and science is particularly responsible for their findings as decisions "should be" based on their data. In too many cases, their data is so far off the mark it goes light years beyond acceptable standard deviation and margin of errors standards. I will concede the much bigger problem is not the quality of data coming from science's efforts but how that data is then spun by the powers to be at NMFS, ASMFC and MAFMS to make policy decisions which support their agendas and not the adoption of regulations to insure stock health and sustainability based on scientific data. If data was remotely accurate and management based their decisions on it, there'd never be a need for draconian measure like season closures or emergency measures. When a fishery is forced to that point, it means either the data is wrong, management ignored it and turned a blind eye choosing status quo or egregious management policies or a combination of the two which in my opinion occurs more often with the amount of politics and money involved. It's turned into a big business. That's exactly what's happened with stripers, the data has been there, writing was on the wall, NMFS and the states know they had a problem and instead choose to stick their heads in the sand and kick the can down the street. And while I agree with you there's no road left, it certainly isn't because of the recreational sector or New Jersey. But the recreational sector and all states will suffer the consequences of a completely failed management process and Virginia's incessant greed and lack of conservation mindedness.

MRIP is and has been a complete and unmitigated disaster. MRIP was first introduced in 2008, overhauled in 2018 which screwed the recreational sector, and then New MRIP was found to be 40% overstated which means after 16 years of scientific effort it was probably more likely overstated by much more. Have you ever listened in to the calls about how MRIP was developed? If you have, you'd know there's no way it could be near accurate yet the scientists and bureaucrats involved were there to take their bows and accolades while everyone patted each other on the back for an outstanding job which turned out to be a complete debacle. MRIP is based on one set of wild ass assumptions applied to another set of wild ass assumptions compounded by another set of wild ass assumptions and then called best available science and rolled out. Less than 5 years later, it's publicly acknowledged by the same scientists that developed it as not being remotely representative of recreational catch values. Sorry but I can't applaud the same people who have caused irreparable harm since 2008 with maybe getting it right now because quite frankly there's no reason to believe they have. If the science and processes you worship so adamantly are as great as you believe, this would never happen. I agree this isn't an exact science and it's complex, but how does anyone justify results and the associated data which is 40% - 50% off the mark. The system is flawed, the data in too many cases in flawed and regardless the basis regulations are made on is as corrupt as it gets.

We've known for decades summer flounder recruitment was tanking and the spawning stock biomass was shrinking because of the the regulations. We've known for years the Chesapeake was becoming more polluted, a complete cesspool, bass recruitment was at all time lows for the last 7-8 years yet fisheries management did nothing. Science has admitted they've grossly overstated menhaden reproduction rates and the size of the Chesapeake stock by as much as 50%. Again that's well beyond statistical margin of error, it's more in the category of we have no idea.

We don't just need science, we need science that results in representative data that is then used to make intelligent practical policy decisions. How is Mark Terceiro Ph.D., who at the time was the top scientist at NMFS with the management of summer flounder under his jurisdiction, allowed to say for ten years recruitment levels are down with summer flounder YET we have no idea why. Simultaneously the regulations based on his data incentivized the exclusive harvest of breeders while killing tens of millions of juvenile fish in the process annually and allowed unabated netting of the spawning stock while NMFS admitted they had no idea what impacts that practice has on the overall efficacy of the spawn. And this is all based on decision from Peer Reviewed processes and systems which were wrong and used to make arguably the worst policy decisions for the stock and recreational community while greatly benefitting commercial sector catch values. We need science to provide key representative data and politicians and bureaucrats to use that data to manage stocks as opposed to managing commerce and their own bank accounts. We have neither. NMFS in more cases cause problems with their decisions or inaction as opposed to managing them from occurring as in the current case with stripers.

NMFS has known for almost ten years the YOY in the Chesapeake has tanked yet chose to do nothing. They've known Virginia and ASMFC cut deals with Cooke Inc. / Omega Protein to pillage the bay of menhaden while killing hundreds of thousands of other non targeted species in the process including redfish and large breeder stripers, all for the benefit of Virginia and who ever else is being paid off to turn a blind eye. They've known for decades blue catfish, which Virginia stocked, were overtaking the entire ecosystem and did nothing to clean up their mistakes but now expect every other state and countless small business to pay for the consequences of their woeful decisions.

In every fishery three things need to happen. Recruitment needs to be protected at all costs, it's the future of every fishery. There needs to be regulations which don't target specific age classes as a healthy fishery is defined as one that has healthy age classes across the board and third quotas and seasons need to be set to insure a stock isn't being overly exploited. No stock should be harvested year round, period. Any stock which has a year round commercial presence is at major risk of collapse. At some point, and we've reached an inflection point where there's simply too much demand and pressure being placed on stocks and technology has become too advanced, every fishery without some degree of protection has one foot in the grave.

The decision to not have a moratorium on stripers was the correct decision as many small businesses who had nothing to do with the creation of the problem would have been devastated, it wouldn't address the problem and it would cause negative ripple effects on other stocks. Management still refuses to address the root cause and goes right to shut down. They &*^&%$ it up so everyone else is going to feel the pain. You could have a moratorium for the next ten years and if the YOY index in the Chesapeake continues to be anemic, this fishery will never rebound. A closure won't make a dent. Stop commercial harvest of large breeders in states like Massachusetts, institute a moratorium on Cooke Inc. in Chesapeake Bay and limit their catch oceanside, figure out a way to treat urban and agricultural run off into the Chesapeake and a way to eradicate the bay of blue catfish. Menhaden, stripers and everything else in the bay will rebound within 3-5 years. Any other solutions is simply tits on a bull.