2024 and 2025 Fluke Options Poll

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by dales529

First of all what makes you believe that commercials would even consider to agree to a shut down and as I assume you are a private boater why would you ask recreational for hire boats to lose a year of pay for their families when its hard enough to make a living? Even if that were to happen there is no indication that the best available science would see better recruitment and we would never get quota back. CR would be acceptable to me but then they would adjust mortality even larger than the BS numbers now and again for hire boats would lose big time.
This is not the answer and why is it that some boats find the fluke consitently day after day if as you say they dont exist, They just dont exist where you are fishing!

X2
go to any fluke tournament all summer long .
All the boats are crushing fish .
.Fish are here just need to fish for them .


The amount of fluke caught daily in the rivers even in rental boats is very good .
Togfather just sounds like he is in the 90%.

..

[Broad Bill]

Good dialogue. The below graph is based on data right from the stock assessment, best available science, the horses mouth and peer reviewed. Summer flounder attain sexual maturity between ages 2 and 3. Based on the Mean Length by Sex and Age charts, a 3 year old female summer flounder's mean length is 17.65 inches, a males is 15.42 inches. So waiting until a female reaches 18" might give that fish one to maybe two years of spawning. Almost all male age groups through age 7 have a mean length less than 18". Age 6 in the graph for males makes no sense, must be flawed data of some kind used in their models. Point is males are significantly smaller in this stock and as such are more susceptible to being victims of natural mortality and extensive collateral damage from commercial netting.

Key point to keep in mind. Right or wrong, science assigns a 25% natural mortality rate to every age class from sickness, predation (stripers, seals etc.). Meaning if an age class started with 1,000 new recruits, it loses 250 in the first year. In the second year, that age class presumably has shrunk to 750 and loses another 187 (25% of 750) or round it up to 200 in year two and has now lost almost 50% of it's class just to natural mortality. Now add discard mortality, especially commercial related which is an enormous number carrying an 80% mortality rate and add recreational mortality plus fishing mortality from commercials who can retain these sizes or throw them back dead while recreational anglers can't. If these percentages are close to reality, we're losing 60% - potentially 80% of every age class within two years before they spawn once or can be harvested legally by the recreational sector. And since males are smaller in size, we're proportionately losing a higher percentage of males from each class which to Hammer's point is why I believe almost all fish harvested recreationally are females. Most males die early in their life cycle, victims of natural mortality or collateral damage from commercial fishing operations. Very few males make it over 18". And if these younger age classes end up in commercial nets, they're going back dead because the prime size commercials harvest are in the 16" - 18" range for the restaurant market. The true reason recreational regulations start at over 18" giving the commercial sector exclusive harvest rights to those size fish.

This fishery flourished in the 90's and early 2000 because we were harvesting the exact opposite age classes we're harvesting today. Harvesting them before they were succumbing to natural mortality and discard mortality, and protecting the spawning stock which made it through. Today's regulations allow these fish to succumb to 25% natural mortality yearly for the first two years, losing ~50% of each classes population, we kill millions of the younger age groups pursuing the harvest of the older age groups and science wonders why the spawning stock declined substantially and why recruitment statistics are approaching historic lows. How many marine biologists should it take to figure that out? Makes no sense if the powers to be are managing the fishery as opposed to what's best for the commercial sector which personally I believe is the prevailing problem regulatory decisions are being based on.

The attached graph shows males are substantially smaller than females, because they grow slower and live shorter lives.

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by Broad Bill

Good dialogue. The below graph is based on data right from the stock assessment, best available science, the horses mouth and peer reviewed. Summer flounder attain sexual maturity between ages 2 and 3. Based on the Mean Length by Sex and Age charts, a 3 year old female summer flounder's mean length is 17.65 inches, a males is 15.42 inches. So waiting until a female reaches 18" might give that fish one to maybe two years of spawning. Almost all male age groups through age 7 have a mean length less than 18". Age 6 in the graph for males makes no sense, must be flawed data of some kind used in their models.

Key point to keep in mind. Right or wrong, science assigns a 25% natural mortality rate to every age class from sickness, predation (stripers, seals etc.). Meaning if an age class started with 1,000 new recruits, it loses 250 in the first year. In the second year, that age class presumably has shrunk to 750 and loses another 187 (25% of 750) or round it up to 200 in year two and has now lost almost 50% of it's class just to natural mortality. Now add discard mortality, especially commercial related which is an enormous number carrying an 80% mortality rate and add recreational mortality plus fishing mortality from commercials who can retain these sizes or throw them back dead while recreational anglers can't. If these percentages are close to reality, we're losing 60% - potentially 80% of every age class within two years before they spawn once or can be harvested legally by the recreational sector. And since males are smaller in size, we're proportionately losing a higher percentage of males from each class which to Hammer's point is why I believe almost all fish harvested recreationally are females. Most males die early in their life cycle, victims of natural mortality or collateral damage from commercial fishing operations. Very few males make it over 18". And if these younger age classes end up in commercial nets, they're going back dead because the prime size commercials harvest are in the 16" - 18" range for the restaurant market. The true reason recreational regulations start at over 18" giving the commercial sector exclusive harvest rights to those size fish.

This fishery flourished in the 90's and early 2000 because we were harvesting the exact opposite age classes we're harvesting today. Harvesting them before they were succumbing to natural mortality and discard mortality, and protecting the spawning stock which made it through. Today's regulations allow these fish to succumb to 25% natural mortality yearly for the first two years, losing ~50% of each classes population, we kill millions of the younger age groups pursuing the harvest of the older age groups and science wonders why the spawning stock declined substantially and why recruitment statistics are approaching historic lows. How many marine biologists should it take to figure that out? Makes no sense if the powers to be are managing the fishery as opposed to what's best for the commercial sector which personally I believe is the prevailing problem regulatory decisions are being based on.

The attached graph shows males are substantially smaller than females, because they grow slower and live shorter lives.

I agree with some of that , but commercial guys are not targeting restaurant sized fish .
They want fish 4 pounds and up because in a good market they make 1 dollar more per pound .
So here in NJ when they are allowed say the 3000 pound weekly , they earn an extra 3k.


.

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

I agree with some of that , but commercial guys are not targeting restaurant sized fish .
They want fish 4 pounds and up because in a good market they make 1 dollar more per pound .
So here in NJ when they are allowed say the 3000 pound weekly , they earn an extra 3k.


.

I know you have tight commercial connection but from commercial guys I know I've been told 16" to 18" is the prime fish they look for and it was to supply enormous demand from the restaurant markets. If they are looking for 4 lb. plus fish, then the 16" - 18" inch fish are going back dead. Either way, it's a problem since they're all breeders and a majority females.

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

I agree with some of that , but commercial guys are not targeting restaurant sized fish .
They want fish 4 pounds and up because in a good market they make 1 dollar more per pound .
So here in NJ when they are allowed say the 3000 pound weekly , they earn an extra 3k.


.

Just curious, what part of the market does 4 lb. plus fluke cater to. Restaurants don't want fillets that hang off the plate. A 4 lb. fish is not what restaurants are buying because of size and thickness. Jumbos are maybe the target of sushi markets, but not the restaurant market and I'm assuming the restaurant market would swamp the sushi market in daily and year round demand. I agree jumbo size fish draw higher market prices but I believe the demand for 16" to 18" fish is much greater. I could be wrong but again what my sources have told me.

[hammer4reel]

Originally Posted by Broad Bill

Just curious, what part of the market does 4 lb. plus fluke cater to. Restaurants don't want fillets that hang off the plate. A 4 lb. fish is not what restaurants are buying because of size and thickness. Jumbos are maybe the target of sushi markets, but not the restaurant market and I'm assuming the restaurant market would swamp the sushi market in daily and year round demand. I agree jumbo size fish draw higher market prices but I believe the demand for 16" to 18" fish is much greater. I could be wrong but again what my sources have told me.

I have more than a few friends commercial fishing . They get more money for fish above 4 pounds .
A restaurant serves a portion , not a 1/4 fish in many places .
Otherwise patrons getting a white side fillet would complain about those others getting a brown side etc .
The THEORY that commercial guys target 16-18” fish is one started by recreational fisherman .
.
When better fish are around their paychecks are substantially larger .

When the market is overrun with fish when the 7 day boats are boating 30-35k a week of fish , small guys don’t even want to fish because it brings the price down to low to make a profit on the smaller state landings .

IMO if you follow NC landings for most of the year they are enormous, in a state that only has a 2 week recreational season .

Those boats are way overfishing all the states north of them to fill those quotas .
It’s not the local commercial boats fishing here with much more conservative bag limits .

[Broad Bill]

Originally Posted by hammer4reel

I have more than a few friends commercial fishing . They get more money for fish above 4 pounds .

The THEORY that commercial guys target 16-18” fish is one started by recreational fisherman.

My point remains. If commercials are targeting 4 lb plus fish, 16" to 20" predominantly female breeders are falling victim to discard mortality especially during the winter when they're being towed from deeper waters and exposed to colder temperatures on deck. And how many 4 lb plus males do we honestly believe are being harvested as opposed to predominantly females.

My theory, as you refer to it about restaurant size 16" to 18" being the primary size fish targeted, isn't from recreational anglers, it's from one of the top commercial guys in the industry.