Fluke Regs this year

Originally Posted by Gerry Zagorski

How dare you question our King

I know as soon as I posted my reply I realized the sacrilege of my ways so instead of being relegated to the wine cellar, I'm imposing a self inflicted ban from the site..........Dilly, Dilly!

[Detour66]

Originally Posted by the directa

leave the regs the same as 2018 just try to lengthen the season

I respectfully disagree. Shorten the season on both ends a bit and up the catch by one and allow 16.5 fish to be kept. Fluking really doesn't start to pick until when the water starts to warm up in mid-June and most of the fish move out after the first tropical storm hits us in early Sept. So it's a waste. At least that's the case in Raritan bay. That's MHO. For what it's worth. Tight lines!

[jmurr711]

Originally Posted by dakota560

I know as soon as I posted my reply I realized the sacrilege of my ways so instead of being relegated to the wine cellar, I'm imposing a self inflicted ban from the site..........Dilly, Dilly!

i am talking perfect world scenario but as we know that will never happen.Fluking is boring anyway but if it was open in October it would keep all the prostaff tog jiggers using bucktails longer & not beat the population up

[frugalfisherman]

This is getting too complicated. I'm glad I make my own rules.

[Irish Jigger]

3 between 17.5 and 24. One over 24". Bigger males are caught, people stop complaining, and the pressure on the big females is reduced. Logical so its unlikely!! If you can t get your 3 @ 17.5 find a new hobby.

Originally Posted by Irish Jigger

3 between 17.5 and 24. One over 24". Bigger males are caught, people stop complaining, and the pressure on the big females is reduced. Logical so its unlikely!! If you can t get your 3 @ 17.5 find a new hobby.

Irish while I agree with the point you're making, the sizes have to be different. Reason I say that is based on Rutgers Sex and Length study, 75% of 17.5" fluke are still females and almost 100% of 24" fish or greater are as well.

Recreational sector is not well organized but improving, not well funded but work is being done behind the scenes to address that issue as well. Put those two attributes aside, one of the most important things we can do is understand what's causing the issues within the fishery and it's decline with data to back it up. We can question the data, but it's data published by NMFS based on their own science and best we have to work with.

You know by now my theory why the summer flounder fishery has declined and my view the destruction in recruitment being the primary reason caused by the continuous and unabated harvest of larger primarily sexually mature fish with a higher percentage being females. Read the articles in the attached links as it relates to size fish, age and number of eggs produced as well as Patrick Sullivan's memo dated September 22, 2015.

http://www.cptdave.com/summer-flounder.html

https://forums.noreast.com/17-inshor...ght-chart.html

https://static1.squarespace.com/stat...nder-Model.pdf

The one article mentions a 27" female summer flounder produces ~4.2 million eggs annually relative to a 14" fish producing ~460,000 annually, a key statistic impacting fishery managements philosophies. The second link states a 7 year old female flounder is ~ 24" (~61 centimeters) and the third link contains a memo from Patrick Sullivan of Cornell University which support these relationship as well as fish over 21" or ~53 centimeters being exclusively females. Rutgers study supports these facts as well. Review the attached charts regarding fish harvested over the last ~37 years, paying special attention to age of fish harvested over that time frame.

First chart shows the trend of commercial fish harvested ages 2 years and under from 1982 - 2012. Notice the increase in age fish being harvested between the years 1988 and 1990, the start of a growing trend. Whats important about this chart is summer flounder ages 2 year and younger are by far sexually immature fish so fish being harvested in the 80's, while significantly higher than todays harvest, were primarily sexually immature fish with no impact on SSB and recruitment or egg production. In other words we were both recreationally and commercially harvesting smaller fish and letting the larger breeders fuel the future of the fishery. Second chart is the same information but in terms of percentages. In the 80's, 91% of fluke harvested consisted of 2 year or younger age fish, that percentage dropped to 81% in the 90's, still statistically significant in having little impact on SSB or negative impacts on egg production. Larger breeders were still sustaining egg production while smaller fish made up the larger share of annual harvest growing SSB even at heightened catch levels compared to today.

Look at chart three and how all that changed when catch levels started being cut and recreational size limits started their continuous upward increases. Look at charts 5 and 6, trend for average weight of fish harvested by commercial and recreational sectors and compare those weights to the above post regarding age, sex and length in the second link and you'll see an extremely high percentage of fish being harvested today are females which is why for the last 25 years recruitment / egg production has been dropping and since 2002 SSB has been in a constant decline.

Review chart 4, Commercial Summer Harvest by Year Trend Ages 7+, chart is very revealing in particular the number of fish ages 7+ harvested in years 2005, 2011 and 2012. Compare the number of 7+ year fish harvested beginning in 2003 / 2004 relative to the years 1989 through 2002. Again all this information is based on 57th SAW so numbers were only available through 2012 and doesn't include recreational but due to the size regulations in place only magnifies my point. A 24" fish converts to 61 centimeters and based on Rutgers "Sex and Length" chart are exclusively females. For the three years '05, '11 and '12, if the article that states a 27" summer flounder produces ~4.2 million eggs annually is remotely accurate, let's assume 7+ year old fish on average produce conservatively ~3.5 million eggs a year, realizing a decent percentage of 7+ year old fish in the data table are actually 8+ years and older and capable of greater egg production than 4.2 million a year.

Do the math on the extent of egg production capacity being removed from SSB every year by harvesting these size fish from the biomass. Fish which were never harvested in the 80's and 90's based on catch data presented by NMFS / ASMFC. Those three years average ~390,000 fish 7+ years of age or older. At ~3.5 million eggs per fish at ~390,000 fish, we're removing approximately 1.4 TRILLION eggs annually and losing their reproductive strength every year thereafter. And, as mentioned, that number represents just the commercial harvest impacts. Since recreational average weight per fish due to increased size regulations resulted in the average weight per fish being greater than the commercial harvest (charts 5 and 6), the impact on recruitment and SSB is actually greater. Wouldn't surprise me if we're removing in excess of 3 to 3.5 TRILLION eggs alone annually from R by the harvest of these larger breeders between commercial and recreational harvest. And that completely ignores the increase in harvest for fish ages 4 - 6 years which has increased substantially as well. Compare the same information to the harvest of similar size fish between the years 1982 - 2002. 7+ year old fish over that period harvested averaged 7,638 and for the years 1989 - 1998 averaged 2,843 fish. From 2004 - 2012 7+ year old fish averaged 228,207, an ~8000% increase. 1989 - 2002 represents the time frame SSB increased exponentially by 600% based on 57th SAW or 900% based on 66th SAW. Recreational size increases coupled with increases in ex-vessel prices for larger fish caused by cuts in commercial catch quotas (supply and demand) killed recruitment and caused a steady and on-going decline in SSB. Regulations are killing this fishery. 2019 regulations of status quo for recreational and a 40% increase in commercial harvest will further compound this very problem. And that's without consideration given to potential impacts commercial harvest could be having on the primary spawn which no one can quantify. We're losing this fishery due to recreational size regulations which worked up to a certain point and then didn't when we pushed past the size limit recreationally of 15.5", and cuts in commercial harvest caused commercial operators to harvest larger fish with higher ex-vessel market prices which more than doubled in value from 2002 to 2017 (last chart green line) to compensate for cuts in catch quota and stay in business. It's that simple.

These are the problems and challenges facing today's fishery and are largely or entirely not being addressed. It's not environmental, it's not predation, it's not mortality, its not catch which is at all time lows. It's recruitment being destroyed, the singular most important element of any sustainable salt water fishery, based on the above facts. Fisheries management has to acknowledge these facts and adopt remedial measures before this fishery can correct itself. Right now the current regulations are doing more harm than good. No fishery can harvest 80% - 90% females and almost 95% sexually mature fish, a trend more problematic due to the harvest of larger females with greater egg production capacity, and sustain itself. It's simply not possible regardless of reductions in catch levels and you don't need a degree in Marine Biology to understand that concept.

[Gumada]

How does Mass get a 5 bag limit and 17” size ? They should be at least 18, maybe 19” and a lower bag. I smellz a rat.....