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Originally Posted by dakota560
Could be any number of factors. Va and NC make up ~50% of the commercial quota, is it commercial over fishing by southern states in their local waters that depleted the more southern portion of the biomass and not migratory movement at all. You could make the same argument with whiting, cod and mackerel, they were here years ago but now any sizable concentration is north. Climate change, we all know it's not. Commercial carnage that caused irreparable damage to the local biomass, we all know it was. Maybe expansion up north is the result of less recreational and commercial fishing up north relative to our local waters. Could be changes in the ocean's ecosystem over the years due to storms. Look what Sandy did up here to hard bottom areas that were covered up post Sandy. Is it due to beach replenishment removing sand from the ocean floor and changing bottom contours. Is it bait movement? Could be natural expansion, could be temperature changes but personally I don't think anyone can say for sure.
Anecdotal. In the 70's, every year we'd go to Maine on vacation. Saco Beach Inlet was one of our stops along the way. Fishing was incredible for stripers and just about everything else. One year, bunker showed up in big numbers for the first time. At the same time, huge bluefish showed up with them. None of the locals knew what they were, tackle shops didn't even have plugs to fish for them. Was that climate change or expansion based on bait movement. If the later, what caused the bait to move north? The bait was there and the fish followed, in that case it had nothing to do with warming water temperatures.
Stock assessment states average length to age for both male and female summer flounder has been declining since the 90's. If fish aren't growing faster I'd imagine lack of forage is a strong possibility. As Bob mentioned in his earlier post, is the location of the biomass being influenced by that as opposed to water temperatures. Years ago, sand eels were all over until commercial netting destroyed that fishery as well. Take away the bait, predators will seek food elsewhere. The amount of sand eels today, like everything else, pales in comparison to the numbers in the 60's, 70's and 80's. Change the food chain at any level and everything above that link changes with it. Go to Massachusetts and see how may sand eels are around compared to our local waters and it's hard to argue bait availability doesn't have some impact on geographical movements of fish stocks. If we didn't have the bunker in our area we've had of late do you think we'd have the amount of bass we have during the migration. Not a chance. Bunker move off shore, predators follow. Maybe the same can be said with fluke and sand eels. Remember years past seeing baby whiting, baby ling, baby weakfish, small porgies in fluke's stomachs. All those fisheries have either disappeared or declined over the years. You can't deny there's climate change occurring, what impact it's having on stock movement is anyone's guess. It's easy to call everything climate change related as a catch all reason if all other possibilities are discounted.
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Well stated as always..
I won't get into the "climate change" debate, we all have our own opinions.. In the case of fluke and you can throw sea bass in there as well, they are overfished in the southern part of thier range... Probably could say that for the NY Bight as well, only because of the sheer number of people after them, although the numbers are still very good from what most of us have seen. That might be why the numbers are declining in the southern parts of the range of both species. I have been reading about the heavy commercial pressure down south, much worse than many of us realize.
One thing I am pretty sure of.. Both species have a pretty wide temperature tolerance. I personally doubt big populations will move north OR south over a degree or two.. They will concentrate where their optimum food sources are located for certain.. ANY fish in salt or fresh water will leave optimum temperature AND habitat, for prime feeding.. When the food moves, the fish that eat it move right along with it... As it pertains to this years Fluke, I still believe that come July/August the fishing will be good on the traditional rough bottom .. So many Ling still being caught in fairly shallow water every day.. I think the bottom is still colder than whats normal for late June... bob
