[aduma1107]

Originally Posted by CaptTB

Hudson to Baltimore if the offshore forecast to watch, but do not ignore the inshore forecast either. (Sandyhook to Manas. out 20 nm) it is a combination of both that we watch. Ignore most if not all long range forecasts, they are generally worthless. Windguru, NOAA, pick a forecast. Once they move out more than 24-48 hours they all pretty much suck.

You also have to realize the things we take into consideration go beyond what wind speed is forecast. What direction? When does it start blowing? Where are we going on that particular day? What boat is going? What is doable for a 100+ ft. boat may bot be for a 50+ boat. (or whatever size)

For example:
FRI NIGHT E TO SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS.

SAT E TO SE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT...THEN BECOMING SHIFTING WINDS 25 TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 11 FT LATE.

So, when is the wind going to pick up on Saturday? Early Saturday morning? Could be a problem.
Saturday during the day? No problem, since by then you are already on your way home.

That is why you will not typically see boats cancel a trip until the day of. The forecasts just change too often.
Many times they do not even have to change the winds, only change when they are supposed to start (or stop)
A change of 8 or 10 hours can mean the difference between sailing or not sailing. And wave height is typically a waste
to look at. 4 to 8ft...... so is it 4 or 8? HUGE difference. Is it a swell or waves? HUGE
difference. Are they short period or long period swells? HUGE difference.

Hope that helps explain things a bit.

Thanks for post.