Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

According to my records of the past 15 years, Father's Day was always the start of some active (shorts and many keepers) Fluke, but this year, so far has been really tough. PB's and charters going after Ling, Whiting and Sea Bass....what the hell is going on here?

Curious to hear your thoughts on this. Are they still east of us? Cold water? Buried in the mud/sand? Moved north? Already at Fulton? What gives?

Slim pickin's to say the least. Care to weigh in?

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

The sea Bass boats are getting quite a few whiting, lots of Ling, and even a few Cod inshore in about 50-60 FOW, each report I see here... In all my years i can't recall good fluke fishing at the same time whiting were being caught inshore.. My vote is that the water is still cold.. That and a buck will get you 3/4 of a cup of gas station coffee.... bob

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

According to best avail science, the main body of fluke are shifting north due to climate change, along with BSB and everything else. I'm sure that's a controversial statement to many here...but it shouldn't be. It certainly fits what we're seeing.

But perhaps some southern species will take its place. Personally, I'm ready for some red drum in RB.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Yeah, I don't buy that for a second. They simply don't show up some years, and its been that way since I was a kid. can't begin to say why that might be.. I remember lots of years back in the 60's and 70's where there were very few fluke... bob

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Bob, the scientists who sift through mountains of historical data, along with current catch data and tagging studies etc see a connection between rising temps and northward migrations...if that's true, it's true whether you buy it or not lol.

If you reject scientific conclusions out of hand, many things become mysterious. In this case, the disappearance of fluke from our local waters.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

There might be lots of ideas about it all. A change to long-term summer weather will help put patrons at the rails despite the poor fishing. Good weather always brings people to the saltwater. A chance to catch fish can only help, even if they are shorts.

Rain, rain, rain........freshwater influx is my theory. Fluke can live and migrate in cold water. I don't give the water temperature excuse too much weight. Bait? There are sandeels not far from the beaches. Reports are coming in about fluke in the surf. There just hasn't been a large push of fluke from offshore as of yet. Just like they disappear suddenly in early September, I am guessing, they will appear suddenly, only later. Appear they will. In the meantime, we wait........or fish in the river.

In any case, if the season gets cut next year or if the size limits are increased, expect a class action lawsuit.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

The tagging studies and scientific studies do show that fluke are migrating north toward Montauk, Block Island, Nantucket etc. Those fish, though are fish that spent a year or two in the N.Y. Bight or off the coast of NJ. As the fluke age and take on size, they are moving north of us. My tag returns have come from fluke that I tagged the previous year and were recaptured in places like Barnegate Bay and the Manasquan River and Brick Beach to name a few. To me, that means fish are returning to places near where they were caught.

Do more fluke move north from south Jersey to the N.Y. area? Absolutely! Many folks would like to pin the reasons for a decline in the fishery to a single occurrence. To say that the fluke are moving out because of a change in the climate is very short sighted, but it's an easily understood and acceptible excuse to the casually informed public. It's also a very popular rationalization that does not mention other environmental and biological theories.

Let's talk about this again in a month or two. If the fluke don't show up in any numbers by then, we'll start pointing fingers at lots of factors but most of them will point toward the scientists who are generating (or not generating) catch limits on offshore spawners.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Hey John, How long of a ride is it from your dock to Montauk? Check out the Miss Montauk II post on this board. The pictures speak volumes about where the fluke are now.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

There must be fluke around because yesterday I saw tons of it at my local seafood store. So what's
the problem?

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

If the climate change theory is true then maybe we'll start seeing some cobia.
Such a fighter and great eating -- I was ill prepared for the mahem that began once we finally got him in the boat. My son ended up beating him with the anchor and I'm lucky we didn't ding the fiberglass.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Maybe the net draggers got them didn’t they up there Quota by 40%

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

i just think the seabass fishing been so go that eveybody been sticking to the seabass/ ling. we will see next week what happen when everybody switches over to fluking.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

The AH party boats that focus on fluke don't decide to bottom fish because the sea bass bite is good, it's because the fluking is bad-- and it's bad.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

OK, I get it now.. the water off NJ is too WARM for Fluke.. However, the whiting are inshore in mid June.. yeah, that makes perfect sense.

So I guess the summer flounder that are resident in Florida year round,and have ALWAYS been there right alongside Gulf and Southern flounder should pack their bags and move north to Georgia to get away from WARM water... oh brother....

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Would these happen to be the same scientists that have been telling us for years now that the seabass stocks are down?

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

From many past discussions on this board alone over Fluke regulations regarding the season start, duration and stop ... given the choice of an early start in May or a later end in September many Fluke anglers preferred that the season end later since early catch size and frequency were spotty early compared to later when it got hot right when Fluke was going to close down.

Nothing scientific here, but in the many years of Fluking I have done in the waters in and around Sandy Hook ...... this has been the case.

The Fluke will show.....

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Fluke in June has been a crap shoot as long as I have been fishing.. Some years great , other years dead.. If its this slow a month from now in mid July we can bitch.. Right now, let the water warm up a bit.. The rocky bottom from asbury to sea bright that so many guys like to fish for big fluke in july and august still has a a lot of ling and even some whiting around... Once the water warms up into the higher 60's the fluke should start showing in better numbers...
The water temp at Sandy hook was 64 as of tuesday. Things will pick up soon IF the fish show in good numbers.. they may not.. Some years the numbers just aren't there, for whatever reason.. After close to 60 years of salt water fishing, I have seen some terrible years when the fluke just weren't there.. 30-40 years ago global warming wasn't a "thing" so we didn't blame it for bad fishing .. We just said .. "man its bad fishing this year"... bob

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

But the water temp is COLDER than normal. Hows that work again?

No bluefish 2018. Many caught in No NJ bluefish 2019?

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Exactly! All of us " Junior Fisheries Scientists " and professional scientists have theories about why the fishing isn't as good as we would like it to be. There has to be a scapegoat to blame for when fishing is poor. Our theories are as good as the more learned scientists who can point to their "data-driven" decisions as answers to any shortcomings in the fisheries. The current scapegoat is climate change. The fact is that many factors enter into why the fishing is good or bad. We all want reasons and scapegoats to explain away our shortcomings. Sometimes shtuff happens and we can't control it but it's not limited to any one factor.

What is more interesting is that we seldom hear theories from the scientists or many others about why the fishing is so good when it is. All I hear is crickets when it comes to explain the current excellent seabass fishing. Is the good fishing because of climate change as well?

I can almost bet that this board will light up with theories when the seabass fishery falls off. The scientists will be sure to post their data and many will point to climate change. Sometimes fishing is just bad.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Fluke are a species that has a wide range along the western atlantic.. some straglers as far north as the canadian maritimes, which i will never understand because there are very few to none in New Hampshire and Maine...

There are LOTS of them from maryland down to florida and they fish for them all year in the coastal florida rivers, along with southern anf gulf flounder which are similar but smaller. They LIKE warm water, and personally i have my doubts they are heading further north to find colder water.. it just makes no sense to me..

At 72 degrees in late summer the water in NJ is often stiff with them and they bite readily, but in the same areas in early summer/late spring at say 62 degrees, tey will be picky, slow to bite and seemingly MIA... So they want to go into a colder environment so they will be less active???.. Doesn't add up..

keep this in mind as well- Throughout ALL of nature, food availability trumps all other considerations in survival, and most fish WILL go out of preferred temp to go where their food is.. If we find in time that the bulk of whatever Fluke feed on most has shifted north, than I am on the bandwagon... However, I would bet right now there is plenty of them to eat right in the NY Bight.. I have heard there were huge masses of sandeels this year out on the sea bass grounds.. If Fluke are keying on them and staying more offshore??.. who knows??.. It might just be a late short season of good fluking.. Or not.. I just don't think they all packed their bags and moved to Montauk because the water there is a few degrees cooler.... bob

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Pretty much, yes: https://youtu.be/pgrWEHfNV6Y

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

They may be the same scientists that changed the "Global Warming" label to the current "Climate Change" label.....:D Climate change has nothing to do with the non-existing fluke bite. This isn't the first time fluking in June sucked....!

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Bullshit.. Sea Bass fishing in southern New England has been good for as long as I have been alive.. Its also good in virginia and the carolinas where the water is always warm.. they live as far south as Florida and the gulf of mexico, ALWAYS have, and as far north as Maine, always have..

Honestly, have you been watching the reports here for the past several years?.. Black sea Bass are very abundant here in the NY Bight, in southern NE where they are caught right alongside Hake, Cod and Haddock, and down the coast well into the carolinas where they are caught right alongside tropical Groupers and Snappers... Any fish with wide distribution , and big populations will expand range at times.. Whiting for decades were as far south as delaware.. Why? because they were abundant in the extreme, and expanded their range a bit.. When the population dropped off to nothing, they were no longer common in the southern part of their range, .. thats the way its always been.. Fluke and Black Sea Bass are not ""moving north""... bob

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

All I know is that they are not in the ocean right now or they might be there and just not biting or try the rivers ???

Colder water, to much rain, not enough bait, maybe wherever they are at they have a good food source so why leave, climate change , global warming or just plain being lazy. Maybe somebody just keeps scooping them up ??? It is just an opinion and we all got one just like the good Ol' balloon knot-:rolleyes:

Cats and dogs sleeping together - Mass Hysteria - quote from Dr. Peter Venkman from the original Ghostbusters circa. 1984

They aint biting , Tuna, seabass ( till Saturday ) Ling and winter flounder are doing pretty good though with a sprinkle of whiting

If you have the means and the time just get out in fish if you can

E.L.E

Catchum Up

GDubs-:cool:

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Still only June give it some time 90 degree sunny days and warmer water is fluke time

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

The Fluke are here. You just have to know where and how. One of my friends has caught over 50 keepers and many shorts. They are just not in the traditional places we caught them in the past this time of year. I think once the water clears up from all the rain and warms up a bit it will be good fishing. Till then it's a waiting game!

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Lol sure bob, I'll take your word for it over peer reviewed studies.

If only science were bullshit, all of us can just armchair ourselves into new discoveries, medicine, technology...why even bother with the process? All that schooling and training and data collecting/modeling...what a waste of time!

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

In the water.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

it IS a waste of time.. Just ask the captains and the anglers that hire them.. they have always been caught down south AND up north, and will be after you and I are stardust..

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

In actuality Bob many for hire captains from Va to NC commented at the ASMFC council meetings on the northward migration of both Fluke and Black Seabass leaving their areas diminished of normal stocks ocean side. in doing so they requested an ease to their regulations due to under harvest of these fish compared to the northern areas. While they still have a small fishery it is nothing compared to what they are used to and again their words:"due to the obvious northward migrations of significant bodies of fish" They also asked for stricter regulations to the areas that have received this northward migration.

Call it whatever you want but nature has moved north and they just react (no opinion or science required) However both science and Captains on the water have stated the same and it is part of all regulations discussions going forward

Its obvious as well that LI, RI , MA , and even Nova Scotia have a thriving fluke fishery compared to NJ and we even more those south of us.

While I believe we here in NJ still have and will have a great Fluke fishery. Already have back a great Sea bass fishery its clear to me that fish are migrating more north than the typical east / west and southern species are now here in our waters.

"Climate Change" to those willing to listen is more about the acceleration of change to conditions that normally change over a significant longer period of time. Nature is reacting to this acceleration regardless of human acceptance.
Doesn't mean we still don't have winter or cold water just means shit is changing faster than ever before and nature gets it!

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

This is all BS
Wind direction has a bigger effect on ocean temp than latitude. These “peer reviewed” studies are useless.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Long Island boats are doing well. Montauk always seems to have an excellent run, but boats out of captree are not having a problem catching fluke right now. Last year there was an early body of fish in the reach channel (approaching Staten Island), but once that body of fish moved out/fished out it was tougher fishing. However, out east, again on long island, and if you were willing to motor pretty Far East of AH, you could find some fish. One thing that was noted by long island fishermen was that the fluke were spitting up sand lance, so there was a good food supply further east. This was supported by big numbers of Cory’s and greater shearwaters southeast of Jones inlet, it was believed the big numbers of these sea birds were also feasting on sand lance. If, during their inshore migration, fluke are finding an ample food supply, they have little reason to move further inshore. Just another thought.
As for fluke being found further north, they were always around Nantucket/the vineyard/tuckernuck, they just weren’t targeted for some reason

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

As long as we're making guesses about where the fluke are or where they went, here is my supposition. Is it a coincidence that the Angler is gone and so are the fluke? No fluke......no Angler......No Angler.......no fluke! :(

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Head east

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

My opinion is that wherever they are, they aren't going looking for colder water..
BTW, I had no idea about this commercial 40% quota increase that was was posted on this thread... Thats catastrophic if true.
I would love for someone to enlighten me on this ... bob

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

Bob......here's a link to an article written by Dan Radel with APP which attempts to explain to 40% increase.

https://www.app.com/story/sports/out...rs/3153388002/

Two statements you should note:

The logic is recreational fishermen actually caught closer to 7.69 million pounds of fluke in 2018 than 4.4 million pounds because there are more fluke in the ocean than models used in past benchmark assessments reported.

AND

The reason for the disparity is because new data points were used in the 2018 benchmark stock assessment for summer flounder. Mail-in surveys were used to gather fishing effort from anglers in the Marine Recreational Information Program, or MRIP, instead of phone calls. The mail-ins "reported much higher catches of summer flounder than were estimated," said Kirby Rootes-Murdy, the senior Fishery Management Plan coordinator for the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission.

So in other words more fish in the stock assessment but recreational quota remains status quo because historical recreational catch numbers which were based on "BEST AVAILABLE SCIENCE" used by highly competent scientists with all that schooling, training and data collecting/modeling expertise are now saying they GROSSLY under-estimated recreational catch in previous models. That should give everyone an idea of what "best available science" actually means. It's an extremely relative term which is essentially a disclaimer that the data regulatory decisions are being based on could be materially wrong but it's best available. And this is all because recreational catch numbers based on MRIP are now being collected through mail in replies as opposed to phone calls. And I'm sure a 99% confidence level was assigned to that statement the same as the numbers used in previous models which by default NMFS is now saying are materially wrong.

Stock goes down, recreational anglers take a hit. Stock goes up, we still take a hit based on guesstimates just as speculative as the older version of MRIP while commercial operators received a 40% increase. An increase equivalent to in excess of $10,000,000 in incremental catch values subsidized by the harvest of larger fish recreational anglers are mandated to release. 14" - 17.99 for NJ, 14" to 18.99 for NY, Ct and RI.

But rest assured, this all passed Peer Review so our concerns should be put to rest. Only other industry which can be so far off with forecasts and models without question is the Weather Bureau. They report up under NOAA and the Department of Commerce as well so makes perfect sense.

I agree we need science, but accepting it face value when the fishery is in a prolonged 17 year decline in all aspects (recruitment, catch levels and the biomass in general) is as illogical as thinking we don't need science at all. But blind faith isn't the answer either. Unfortunately this is a David and Goliath situation and I doubt David is winning this one.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

The most feared phrase on earth "We're the government and we're here to help"!!!!!!

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

One more point for the resident Peer Review disciples. The stock assessment report provides commercial catch statistics and biomass composition in terms of age class fish for the years 1982 through 2012.

Here's what that data states. 90% of commercial catch in the 80's and 90's was made up of age class fish 2 years or younger. For the years 2010 - 2012, that percentage dropped to 16% and based on the trend is most likely less than 5% today. The importance of that statistic among other things is summer flounder don't attain sexually maturity until somewhere between 2-3 years of age. Keep in mind, in the 80's and 90's, recreational size limits were either 13" or 14" so recreational catch most likely consisted of similar catch composition.

Number of fish commercially harvested between 1982 - 1989 ages 2 and younger averaged 23.3 million fish annually. In 2012, last year of published data, that number dropped to 887,000, a significant change in catch composition. So in the 90's when the data shows a 600% increase in the biomass, overall harvest consisted predominantly of sexually immature fish. Scroll forward to today, it's the exact opposite. Recreational because of size limit increases, commercial because there's increased catch value harvesting the larger fish recreational anglers are being forced to release to compensate for cuts in catch quotas. I don't blame them one bit to remain in business. I blame fisheries management for not understanding the consequences of their decisions.

Keep following the logic. If summer flounder in the 2 yr and younger class are essentially no longer commercially or recreationally being harvested, we should be seeing explosive growth in the biomass of these year classes. We're not. Years 1982 - 1989 averaged 122 million fish in the biomass annually, years 2011 - 2012 averaged 72 million, a 41% decrease in a biomass that increased 600% over that period. That's virtually impossible. If 23 million less fish a year are being harvested commercially and none recreationally, coupled with the six-fold increase in the size of the biomass today compared to the mid 80's, there should be somewhere in the proximity of 250 - 300 million of these age class fish in today's biomass. The question the scientific community and fisheries management should be asking is what's happened to these age classes? We should be seeing an exponential increase in these age classes but the data instead shows a significant reduction. Either the fish are there and the stock is being materially under estimated or the data is correct which means there's a major problem with this age class of the stock not being addressed. Pick your poison since they both negatively impact catch quotas.

Again best available science, peer review so we should accept the data and decisions face value. I couldn't disagree more. These are material changes in historical relationships in a fishery that's been in a prolonged decline. In my opinion, the result of unintended consequences of regulatory decisions. But my opinion or anyone else's doesn't matter so we depend on the scientific community, councils and committees to ask the question for us but don't hear anyone asking these questions. Instead, they immediately go to cuts in catch, shortened seasons, increases in size limits or reductions in possession limits all decisions in my opinion further compounding the problem.

Re: Where the heck are the Fluke?
 

There is huge expansion in the population. Is that climate change or over regulation? Hmmmmmm